Underdogs vs. Favourites: When to Bet Against the Odds

In sports betting, it’s tempting to always back the favourites. After all, they’re expected to win—right? But seasoned bettors know that there’s real money to be made by siding with the underdogs. The secret lies in value betting—a strategy that focuses less on who’s expected to win, and more on where the true value in the odds lies. In this blog, we’ll break down how and when to bet against the odds, what value betting really means, and why the underdog might just be your best bet.

Understanding Favorites and Underdogs

Every betting market has a favorite and an underdog:

• Favorite: The team or player bookmakers expect to win. They have lower odds, meaning lower potential profit.
• Underdog: The less likely winner. They offer higher odds and therefore bigger returns if they pull off a win.

For example, in a football match, a top-tier team like Manchester City playing against a lower-ranked team will have odds like 1.30 (favorite), while the underdog might be priced at 9.00 or more.

What Is Value Betting?

Value betting is when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the actual probability of the outcome. If you consistently place bets with value, you’ll increase your chances of making a profit over time—regardless of whether you’re backing favorites or underdogs.

Example of a Value Bet:

• A bookmaker offers 5.00 odds (20% implied probability) for an underdog.
• After your analysis, you believe the underdog has a 30% chance of winning.
• That’s a value bet, because the odds underestimate the underdog’s chances.

When It Makes Sense to Bet on the Underdog

🟢 1. When Public Bias Inflates Favorite Odds

Popular teams attract a lot of bets, which can cause their odds to shorten unfairly. This makes the opposing side (the underdog) more appealing, especially if they’re being undervalued due to public perception.

🟢 2. When the Underdog Has Strong Recent Form

Look beyond the league table or reputation. If an underdog is playing at home or is on a winning streak, the odds may not reflect their true potential.

🟢 3. In Rivalries or Derbies

Underdogs often overperform in high-stakes, emotional matchups. Form can go out the window, and passion levels the playing field.

🟢 4. In Early Season or Cup Competitions

Favorites may rest players or underestimate their opponents. Underdogs, especially in knock-out tournaments, have everything to play for.

How to Spot a Valuable Underdog Bet

🔍 Analyse Team News and Injuries

If a favorite is missing key players, their chances of winning drop—but odds might not reflect that immediately.

🔍 Look at the Playing Conditions

Weather, pitch conditions, and even time zones can affect performance, especially in international sports.

🔍 Compare Odds Across Sportsbooks

Use odds comparison tools to find the best price. New platforms like BetTOM often offer competitive odds and promotions on underdog markets, which can further enhance value.

The Risks of Betting on Underdogs

While the payouts can be huge, underdog bets naturally come with a lower win probability. To succeed long-term:

• Don’t expect frequent wins—look for long-term value.
• Keep your stake sizes consistent (use a flat betting strategy).
• Avoid emotional bets—always do the research.

Final Thoughts

Betting against the odds isn’t about being a contrarian—it’s about finding value where others aren’t looking. Underdogs may not win often, but when they do, the payoff can be significant—especially if you’ve done your homework.

Whether you’re backing the long shot in a title match or quietly betting on an overlooked team mid-table, always be guided by value, not popularity. Sportsbooks like BetTOM make it easy for savvy punters to explore underdog markets with intuitive tools and competitive pricing.

So the next time you see a juicy underdog line, take a second look. The crowd might be wrong—and that’s where smart money is made.